Northeast Atlantic mackerel are below safe biological levels and there is no precautionary recovery plan in place. Therefore, it receives a critical fail for stock status and is a default red rating.
Stock assessments are carried out annually by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). The most recent assessment was published in 2025 using data up to the same year. The next assessment is expected in 2026.
The stock assessment defines reference points for fishing pressure (F) and biomass (B). For fishing pressure, there is a target to keep F at or below Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY). For biomass, there is no target. However, there is a trigger point (MSY BTrigger). Below this level, F should be reduced to allow the stock to increase. Because BMSY is not defined, the Good Fish Guide applies its own definition of 1.4 x MSY BTrigger.
A benchmark assessment was held in 2025 and reference point values for the mackerel stock were adjusted.
Mackerel has been fished for centuries in the northeast Atlantic. Catches averaged 680,000 tonnes in the 1980s and 1990s, although they are thought to be under-reported during this time. Catches peaked at 1.4 million tonnes in 2014, and the recent average is around 1 million tonnes.
Spawning-stock biomass (SSB) was close to its lowest safe biological limits (Blim: 2 million tonnes) during the late 1990s and early 2000s, the population was recovering until 2015 when the populations began to decline. This decline has continued and the estimated 2025 SSB (2,740,823 tonnes) was 10% below Blim (3,067,017 tonnes).The stock is therefore in a very overfished state, and suffering reduced reproductive capacity.
Fishing pressure (F) exceeded upper limits during the early 2000s and then declined. It was below the level associated with Maximum Sustainable Yield (FMSY, 0.191) between 2011 and 2020, but has since increased. The estimated total catch in 2024 was 897,701 tonnes. F in 2024 was 0.27, which is 41% above FMSY. Therefore, fishing mortality is above target levels and the stock is not being harvested sustainably.
ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2026 should be no more than 174,347 tonnes. This is a 70% decrease on the previous year's advice due to the decline in stock size, this advised reduction of fishing pressure is to achieve a 50% probability of SSB being above Blim in 2027 and the change in the perception of the stock after the benchmark.
Catch data for 2021 and 2022 for the Russian Federation was estimated, but there is confidence in the estimates.
Catch and survey data from recent years indicate that the stock has expanded north-westwards during spawning and the summer feeding migration. The change may be linked to changes in food availability, increased water temperature, and / or increased stock size.
