Northern hake is not overfished and not subject to overfishing.
The most recent stock assessment was published by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) in 2022, using data up to 2022. It defines reference points for fishing pressure (F) and biomass (B). For fishing pressure, there is a target to keep F at or below Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY). For biomass, there is no target. However, there is a trigger point (MSY BTrigger). Below this level, F should be reduced to allow the stock to increase. Because BMSY is not defined, the Good Fish Guide applies its own definition of 1.4 x MSY BTrigger.
The stock assessment was benchmarked in 2022, and the new estimates of stock size are 71% larger over time. Estimates of spawning stock biomass (SSB) now only include females, whereas previously they included males as well.
The spawning-stock biomass (SSB) has increased substantially from being outside biologically safe levels in 2006 (around 45,000 tonnes) to peak at almost 300,000t in 2015. It has since declined to 186,358t in 2022. This is well above MSY Btrigger (78,405t). The stock is therefore not in an overfished state.
Fishing mortality (F) decreased significantly between 2005 and 2012, and has been fluctuating below levels associated with Maximum Sustainable Yield (FMSY, 0.24) since then. In 2021 it was 0.184 - below FMSY. The stock is therefore not subject to overfishing.
ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2023 should be no more than 83,130 tonnes. This is an 11% increase on the previous year's advice, because of revised new stock assessment.
There is some uncertainty in this stock assessment. The biomass surveys don't cover the entire stock distribution area, and changes in distribution are known to increase uncertainty in the assessment. Analyses show that the new assessment tends to revise historical SSB downwards and F upwards when a new year’s data is added. If this pattern continues, this may result in an inflated advised catch.
