Atlantic cod

Scientific advice recommends zero-catch for the all Northern Shelf cod, but this advice is not being followed, resulting in a default red rating.

In 2023, ICES carried out a benchmark of two cod stocks: North Sea, eastern English Channel and Skagerrak, and West of Scotland. As a result, the understanding of the stock structure has changed substantially. These two stocks were merged into one: North Sea, West of Scotland, eastern English Channel, and Skagerrak. However, this new stock has three substocks:

• Northwestern: West of Scotland (6a) and western part of the Central (4b) and Northern (4a) North Sea
• Viking: the Skagerrak (3a.20) and the eastern part of the Northern (4a) and Central (4b) North Sea
• Southern: the southern part of the Central (4b) North Sea and all of the Southern (4c) North Sea, and the Eastern English Channel (7d)

As a result, the perception of these new substocks is different from previous years and is not comparable to previous advice, before the 2023 benchmark.

There is some uncertainty in the new stock assessments and ICES has indicated that catches by substock should not be taken as area-specific advice. The three substocks have different spawning grounds and biological characteristics, such as growth and time of sexual maturity. During spawning season and when the cod are young the substocks are not believed to mix, therefore it is possible to assess spawning stock biomass for each individual substock. However, they do mix at other times of year and further research and genetic data is needed to improve estimates of fishing mortality and provide specific catch advice.

Overall, ICES is confident that there are three substocks, and that they can estimate their individual biomass sizes, but cannot accurately estimate catches or fishing mortality at the substock level.

In 2024, the observed catches for all substocks combined were 18% lower than the ICES estimates, compared to 2023 where they were 23% lower.

This rating is for the Viking substock.

This stock is assessed by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). The stock assessment defines reference points for fishing pressure (F) and biomass (B). For fishing pressure, there is a target to keep F at or below Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY). For biomass, there is no target. However, there is a trigger point (MSY BTrigger). Below this level, F should be reduced to allow the stock to increase. Because BMSY is not defined, the Good Fish Guide (GFG) applies its own definition of 1.4 x MSY BTrigger.

In 2024, the fishing pressure (F) was 0.34, which is above the level associated with Maximum Sustainable Yield, FMSY (0.187), and 11% higher than the precautionary limit Fpa (0.307). The total estimated catch was 10,520 tonnes. This indicates that fishing pressure was too high and is subject to overfishing.

In 2025, the spawning stock biomass (SSB) was 12,750 tonnes, below MSY Btrigger (13,732 tonnes) but still above the precautionary reference points Bpa GFG proxy (11,676t) and Blim (9,619t). This indicates that the substock is overfished. SSB in 2024 was 14,031t slightly above MSY Btrigger (13,732t), showing that the stock has declined significantly between 2024 and 2025.

Because there is uncertainty about the degree of mixing between the substocks, ICES advises a precautionary approach that protects the weakest substock (the southern). ICES recommends that the Northwest and Viking substocks follow the MSY approach with precautionary considerations. Under these approaches, all substocks should have zero catch in 2026.

If the advice is followed (using the MSY approach with precautionary considerations) the Viking substock’s SSB is projected to increase by 37%, reaching 15,141 tonnes. In contrast, if fishing pressure remains at 2025 levels, the SSB is expected to decline by 25% to 8,327 tonnes.

Atlantic cod is listed by OSPAR as a threatened and/or declining species. Recruitment of young fish has remained poor since 1998, likely due to the combined effects of long‑term overfishing, which drove the stock to low levels, and rising sea temperatures. Since 1960, North Sea surface temperatures have risen by 1.68°C, with further warming anticipated. As a result, predictions suggest that the North Sea cod stock is unlikely to recover substantially.

Between 1975 and 2005, the size at maturity for cod decreased from approximately 75 cm to 45 cm. This trend is thought to reflect fisheries‑induced evolution, particularly affecting male cod, while increasing temperatures are also believed to contribute, especially in females.

Cod populations in this area have historically been highly depleted. A series of recovery measures have reduced fishing pressure to an extent, but it remains above sustainable levels. Catches have exceeded scientifically advised limits, and juvenile fish have not been protected.

In 2023, ICES carried out a benchmark of two cod stocks: North Sea, eastern English Channel and Skagerrak, and West of Scotland. As a result, these two stocks were merged into one: North Sea, West of Scotland, eastern English Channel, and Skagerrak. There are now three sub-stocks: Southern, Viking, and Northwestern. As a result of the benchmark, the perception of stock status differs from previous assessments and is not directly comparable to earlier advice.

Cod from these areas is caught by the UK, EU and Norway. For the North Sea stock, there has been an agreed management approach between all three parties. However, in the West of Scotland there has been no joint agreement. The stock is only covered as a bycatch species in the EU Multi Annual Plan for Western Waters (WWMAP), and the UK has had no management plan for it.

ICES notes that substocks are mixed in catches and that there is currently insufficient information to determine the proportional contribution of each sub‑stock across management areas. Consequently, ICES has provided precautionary advice intended to protect the weakest sub‑stock (Southern). This advice is framed at the sub‑stock level rather than by area, presenting challenges for implementation and highlighting the need for a precautionary management approach until improved spatial and mixing data become available.

For 2026, ICES precautionary advice recommends zero catch across all substocks. Without precautionary considerations, advice based on fishing at MSY would have allowed total catches of up to 12,280 tonnes, comprising of 8,670 tonnes from the Northwestern substock, 3,610 tonnes from the Viking substock and zero catch from the Southern substock. However, because the substocks are caught together, fishing at this level would carry a high risk of the Southern substock remaining below Blim.

Despite this, the total allowable catch (TAC) for Northern Shelf cod in 2026 was set at 14,034 tonnes, exceeding ICES advice both with and without precautionary considerations. The TAC was allocated across areas as follows: 625 tonnes for Division 6.a, 11,164 tonnes for Subarea 4, 1,596 tonnes for Skagerrak (Subdivision 20), and 650 tonnes for Division 7.d. While this represents a reduction compared with previous combined TACs for the component stocks, it remains inconsistent with scientific advice.

More recent management measures introduced by the UK, EU and Norway since 2019 have contributed to a reduction in fishing pressure and some increases in biomass. However, fishing mortality remains above FMSY for all three substocks, and existing measures do not include explicit recovery targets or timelines. As such, current management cannot be considered a precautionary recovery framework capable of ensuring rebuilding of a highly depleted stock.

Measures in 2023 include the UK Cod Avoidance Plan and the EU Fishing Opportunities regulation (2023/1324):

• Closed areas for all or part of the year in Norway, the EU and the UK to protect spawning and juvenile cod.
• A minimum mesh size to reduce catches of juvenile cod (120mm in UK waters). There are exemptions for trawling in mud, where smaller meshes are used to catch Norway lobster. This reduces the effectiveness of these measures because such trawls often have a high bycatch of cod.
• Real time closures, where catches of high numbers of small cod trigger a closure of the area to fishing for a certain period.

For 2026, delegations agreed a set of short‑term spatial and technical measures to reduce fishing pressure on Northern Shelf cod, particularly during spawning and juvenile life stages. These measures include:

• Seasonal closures: The introduction of new and expanded seasonal closures to protect spawning and nursery grounds across EU, UK and Norwegian waters. Measures include new closures in EU waters of Divisions 4.b and expanded closures in Divisions 3.a; new and expanded closures in UK waters of Division 4.a (including the Foula Deeps and East of Fair Isle); and extended closure periods in Norwegian waters. All new and expanded closures will come into effect from 1 January 2026.
• Existing real time closures will be strengthened to better reflect current stock conditions through revised trigger thresholds, larger and longer closures, and updated sampling rules, including lower thresholds for triggering juvenile and high‑cod aggregation closures across EU, UK and Norwegian waters.

Additional spatial measures have been implemented to protect spawning cod, although their effectiveness remains uncertain. An area north of Scotland known as the Windsock was closed to fishing in 2003 but was removed in 2019 and replaced by the West Shetland Shelf Marine Protected Area (MPA), under which parts of the area were reopened to trawling. A voluntary agreement is currently in place to restrict trawling across approximately 37% of the MPA. Discussions took place in 2022 regarding the re‑closure of a further portion of the site to trawling; however, no subsequent decisions or announcements have been made. In addition, an area of the Firth of Clyde has been seasonally closed from February to April since 2001. While exemptions had previously applied to creel fishing, Nephrops trawlers and scallop dredgers, the closure was extended to all fishing gears in 2022 and 2023 due to concerns that any fishing activity within 10 metres of the seabed could cause ecological disturbance. The Scottish Government has proposed continuing this full closure during 2024 and 2025.

Despite these measures, fishing mortality on juvenile cod remains high, limiting the number of fish reaching maturity and constraining stock recovery. Cod can legally be landed and sold at a minimum conservation reference size of 35 cm. Below this size, cod must still be landed under the landing obligation but cannot be sold for human consumption, reducing their economic value. As cod typically mature at around 45 cm, the current minimum size does not effectively discourage the capture of juvenile fish.

High levels of discarding continue to undermine management efforts, particularly in the West of Scotland. Between 2016 and 2018, an estimated 70% of total catches by weight were discarded, although this fell to 34% in 2021. From 2019 to 2021, juvenile cod aged 1–3 years accounted for approximately 75% of the catch by number and 98% of total discards. In the North Sea, discards represented around 17% of total catch by weight between 2017 and 2021, with juvenile cod making up approximately 83% of the catch by number. These figures indicate persistent challenges in avoiding juvenile cod, despite regulatory requirements to land all catches.

Evidence also indicates issues with misreporting of catches. Cod caught in Division 6.a (West of Scotland) have been reported as originating from Divisions 4.a (North Sea) and 5.b (Faroes). In 2018, around 60% of landings in Division 6.a were estimated to have been misreported in this way, falling to approximately 30% in 2019 and 5% in 2021. These estimates cannot be fully verified using vessel tracking data due to limitations in access to UK datasets.

Additional sources of fishing mortality further complicate stock assessment and management. Recreational fisheries in the North Sea may account for approximately 5% of total cod removals, but these catches are poorly recorded, not subject to catch limits, and are not currently included in stock assessments. Cod is also taken as bycatch in a wide range of mixed fisheries, highlighting the need for improved mixed‑fishery management to ensure cumulative fishing pressure does not remain unsustainable.

The Fisheries Act (2020) requires the development of Fisheries Management Plans (FMPs) (replacing EU Multi-Annual Plans) in the UK. 43 FMPs have been proposed and are at various stages of development and implementation, these should all be published by the end of 2028. FMPs have the potential to be very important tools for managing UK fisheries, although data limitations may delay them for some stocks. It is also essential the UK governments define and adopt a standardised approach or model across the four nations to a universally defined FMP design, to ensure the consistence, quality and coherence of all the proposal FMPs.

The Marine Conservation Society is keen to see publicly available Fishery Management Plans for all commercially exploited stocks, especially where stocks are depleted, that include:

• An overview of the fishery including current stock status, spatial coverage, current fishing methods and impacts
• Targets for fishing pressure and biomass, and additional management when those targets are not being met, based on the best scientific evidence
• Timeframes for stock recovery
• Improved data collection, transparency, and accountability, supported by technologies such as Remote Electronic Monitoring (REM)
• Consideration of wider environmental impacts of the fishery, including habitat impacts and minimising bycatch
• Stakeholder engagement

A Atlantic Cod FMP has been proposed, coordinated by Marine Scotland that incorporates this stock. At the time of writing, it is too soon to know whether proposed management measures will be effective in managing the stock. For more information about this FMP and expected progress and timelines, see [https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/fisheries-management-plans#published-fmps].

Most cod catches are by otter trawls, which are likely to cause some damage to the seabed. Bycatch is moderate and may include vulnerable species such as blue and flapper skate. There may also be bycatch of cod from the more vulnerable Southern substock.

Otter trawlers interact with the seabed and can modify bottom topography and cause damage and removal of some biogenic features including vulnerable marine habitats and benthic communities. They can also bycatch vulnerable species.

Most cod throughout the Northern Shelf (around 82%) are caught by demersal trawls and seines. This includes demersal trawls and seines with large mesh size (100mm +) (75%) and small-meshed trawls targeting Nephrops (7%). Around 10% of the catch is from gillnets and 1% from beam trawls.

Cod throughout the Northern Shelf are a part of a mixed fishery with haddock, Nephrops, whiting, plaice, sole, turbot, brill, and saithe. Cod is the most limiting stock for demersal fisheries in this region, meaning the cod quotas are met with quicker and lower effort compared to the other fisheries.

Additionally, because there is some mixing between the three substocks, though further research and genetic data is needed to determine the degree of mixing, there may be bycatch of cod from the Southern substock. The Southern substock is the most vulnerable of the three and it is possible that bycatch levels of this substock is impacting the population recovery.

Demersal otter trawls have the potential to take relatively high quantities of bycatch. In the Northeast Atlantic there are reported catches of demersal elasmobranchs and endangered, threatened and protected (ETP) species (e.g. sharks, rays and marine mammals). Bycatch data is limited in many UK and EU fisheries as they are generally not well monitored.

Some mitigation measures are in place in some areas. For blue and flapper skate, these include a prohibition on landing either species, in addition to some protection for nursery areas. It is not clear if this fishery is having an impact at population level for any of these species. Given that bycatch is ongoing, the Marine Conservation Society considers it possible that the bycatch level is contributing to population decline and/or preventing recovery. Additionally, a proportion of the trawl fisheries in the North Sea are Marine Stewardship Council-certified and record bycatch. The Marine Conservation Society assumes these records would also represent bycatch concerns in uncertified fisheries in the area. Bycatch in the certified fishery includes the Critically Endangered common skate complex (blue skate and flapper skate), porbeagle, and other skates and rays.

Otter trawls have contact with the seabed resulting in penetration and abrasion of habitat features. The impact of trawling on the seabed depends on the location and scale in which trawling occurs. For example, areas that are used to natural disturbance through tides and waves, are less sensitive to habitat impacts. Areas not used to mobile towed gears are typically more sensitive to trawling. Trawl gears are known to have some of the greatest impacts on Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems (VMEs).

In the North Sea impacts from bottom trawling are variable. Fishing grounds for cod vary, but the habitat is generally mud and sand, which are less vulnerable to trawling than features such as reefs and seagrass. Data from 2018 - 2021 indicates that trawling was happening on 85% of the seabed area in the North Sea. Fishing effort has been decreasing since the early 2000’s, mainly in the trawl fisheries, which is reducing pressure on the seabed and on bycatch species. However, fishing in the North Sea in general has reduced the number of large fish in the ecosystem (mostly cod, saithe, ling, sturgeon, and some elasmobranchs). Additionally, compared to unfished levels in the North Sea there has been approximate decrease of 20% of invertebrate benthic biomass due to physical disturbances from fishing. Impacts may be as high as 90% in the most heavily fished areas.

Mitigation measures include a ban on bottom trawling below 800m, and restrictions from 400-600m – the areas where most VMEs are found. There remains some uncertainty about the location of some sensitive seabed habitats, so these remain at risk.

There are Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) in this area, some of which are designated to protect seabed features from damaging activities. This fishery overlaps with parts of these MPAs, but the proportion of the catch coming from these areas is expected to be relatively low in relation to the unit of assessment (i.e. less than 20% of the catch or effort), and so these impacts have not been assessed within the scale of this rating. Given the important role that MPAs have in recovering the health and function of our seas, the Marine Conservation Society encourages the supply chain to identify if their specific sources are being caught from within MPAs. If sources are suspected of coming from within designated and managed MPAs, the Marine Conservation Society advises businesses to establish if the fishing activity is operating legally inside a designated and managed MPA, and request evidence from the fishery or managing authority to demonstrate that the activity is not damaging to protected features or a threat to the conservation objectives of the site(s).

To improve monitoring and reporting of fishing activity, the Marine Conservation Society would like to see remote electronic monitoring (REM) with cameras implemented, used and enforced. To reduce the impacts of fishing on the marine environment we would like to see a just transition to the complete removal of bottom towed gear from offshore Marine Protected Areas designated to protect the seabed. We also want to see reduction and mitigation of environmental impacts including emissions and blue carbon habitat damage.